Albert Blog

I've tried in 2013 (see here) to predict elections in Albania and I was completely off :) However, since I like to do some analysis/predictions, I'm doing something this year as well. But I'm not sharing my super-advanced, sophisticated algorithm; I will just share my prediction:

Since based on the prediction, there are some close results, the potential changes are:

If we take the changes into account and do the totals, we have:

So it's very likely that PS will with the elections, but no party can win the necessary 71 seats to form the government. Everything will be decided by the post elections coalitions. In 4 weeks time, we'll know if I'm right this time :)

The result of the elections confirmed one thing: Politics and Math don't like each other :) The result was a surprise for everyone and I'm going to analyze it. Instead below I'm posting the original prediction for the members of the parliament, corrected based on the current results (there are still some decisions that can change).

Tirana District

1. Pandeli Majko - PS, 245,000 results
2. Sali Berisha - PD, 4,080,000 results
3. Saimir Tahiri - PS, 125,000 results
4. Myqerem Tafaj - PD, 72,200 results
5. Vasilika Hysi - PS, 42,600 results
6. Majlinda Bregu - PD, 264,000 results
7. Ditmir Bushati - PS, 152,000 results
8. Halim Kosova - PD, 108,000 results
9. Fatmir Xhafaj - PS, 48,400 results
10. Florion Mima - PD, 13,600 results
11. Ilir Meta - LSI, 1,260,000 results
12. Gerti Bogdani - PD, 113,000 results
13. Lindita Nikolla - PS, 26,700 results
14. Dashamir Shehi - LZHK^1,,42,500 results
15. Besnik Baraj - PS, 39,500 results
16. Jorida Tabaku - PD, 40,800 results
17. Xhemal Qefalia - PS, 18,900 results
18. Edi Paloka - PD, 49,400 results
19. Sadri Abazi - PS, 16,600 results
20. Keltis Kruja - PD, 12,600 results
21. Parid Cara - PS, 21,000 results
22. Kastriot Islami - PD, 347,000 results
23. Spartak Braho - LSI², 23,800 results
24. Asllan Dogjani - PD, 54,000 results, Klajda Gjosha - LSI
25. Artan Gaci - PS, 37,800 results
26. Visar Zhiti - PD, 279,000 results, Luan Rama - LSI
27. Pjerin Ndreu - PS, 40,900 results
28. Ylli Shehu - PR, 22,100 results or Arben Qirjako - PD, 10,400 results or Shkelqim Barushi- LZHK, 51 results
29. Rakip Suli - PS, 31,800 results
30. Ylli Shehu - PR, 22,100 results or Arben Qirjako - PD, 10,400 results or Shkelqim Barushi- LZHK, 51 results, Tahir Muhedini - PDIU 
31. Milena Harito - PS, 31,100 results or Klajda Gjosha - LSI, 93,900 results or Gentian Deliallisi - PD, 412 results or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK, 507,000 results or Bamir Topi - FRD, 1,090,000 results. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD, 88,500 results or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ, 172 results or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU, 25,200 results
32. Milena Harito - PS, 31,100 results or Dashamir Peza - PS,  13,200 results or Klajda Gjosha - LSI, 93,900 results or Gentian Deliallisi - PD, 412 results or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK, 507,000 results or Bamir Topi - FRD, 1,090,000 results. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD, 88,500 results or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ, 172 results or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU, 25,200 results

 Fieri District

33. Gramoz Ruci - PS, 93,700 results
34. Sokol Olldashi - PD, 242,000 results
35. Erion Brace - PS, 45,900 results
36. Mesila Doda - PD, 98,100 results
37. Eglantina Gjermeni - PS, 35,700 results
38. Ilirjan Celibashi - PS, 19,500 results
39. Kosma Dashi - PD, 7 results
40. Armando Subashi - PS, 25,300 results
41. Shpetim Idrizi - PDIU¹, 218,000 results
42. Arben Cuko - PS, 19,600 results
43. Petrit Vasili - LSI, 109,000 results
44. Bedri Mihaj - PD, 5,770 results, Robert Bitri - LSI
45. Piro Lutaj - PS, 22,800 results
46. Omer Mamo - PDIU, 8,250 results. Outside chance for Dritan Prifti, 175,000 results, Eduart Sharka - PR, 580 results, Kadri Gega - LZHK, 1,480 results, Altin Dauti - AK, 3,570 results, Shpetim Axhani - PLL, 549 results
47. Majlinda Bufi - PS, 1,590 results
48. Ervin Koci - PS, 14,800 results or Myslim Murrizi - PD, 5,110 results

Elbasan District

49. Ben Blushi - PS, 136,000 results
50. Arben Imami - PD, 542,000 results
51. Damian Gjiknuri - PS, 66,000 results
52. Eduard Selami - PD, 141,000 results
53. Evis Kushi - PS, 23,000 results
54. Ardian Turku - PD, 18,800 results
55. Alfred Peza - PS, 128,000 results
56. Luciano Boci - PD, 81,110 results
57. Taulant Balla - PS, 189,000 results
58. Dashnor Sula - PD, 29,000 results, Bujar Kllogjri - LSI
59. Edmond Haxhinasto - LSI, 229,000 results
60. Arbjola Halimi - PD, 2,700 results, Aqif Rakipi - PDIU
61. Musa Ulqini - PS, 17,900 results
62. Aurel Bylykbashi - PD, 16,000 results or Arben Kamami - PS, 2,670 results. Outside chance for Luan Duzha - PR, 8,690 results,  or Ramazan Braho - PAA, 1 result or Rezart Kovaci - PDK, 981 results.

Durres District

63. Eduard Halimi - PD, 159,000 results
64. Blendi Klosi - PS, 108,000 results
65. Igli Cara - PD, 26,600 results
66. Klodiana Spahiu - PS, 73,700 results
67. Albana Vokshi - PD, 36,400 results
68. Ilir Beqaj - PS, 9,590 results
69. Gent Strazimiri - PD, 18,300 results
70. Lefter Koka - LSI, 69,700 results
71. Oerd Bylykbashi - PD, 20,200 results
72. Namik Dokle - PS, 77,100 results
73. Osman Metalla - PD, 21,400 results, Artur Bushi - PS
74. Gentian Bejko - PS, 6,200 results
75. Vullnet Topalli - PD, 8,810 results or Agron Duka - PR, 52,200 results. Outside chance for Gazmend Oketa - FRD, 134,000 results.

Korce District

76. Bashkim Fino - PS, 149,000 results
77. Ridvan Bode - PD, 148,000 results
78. Arta Dade - PS, 128,000 results
79. Eleina Qirici - PD, 3,050 results
80. Olta Xhacka - PS, 15,900 results
81. Edmond Spaho - PD, 19,600 results
82. Ilirian Pendavinji - PS, 3,320 results
83. Fatmir Mehdiu - PR¹, 211,000 results
84. Ilir Xhakolli - PS, 12,300 results
85. Gjergji Papa - PD, 9,470 results
86. Ylli Zicishti - PS, 29,800 results or Piro Kapurani - LSI, 2,530 results
87. Fatbardh Kadilli - PD, 22,400 results or Ardit Konomi - PS, 4,320 results or Ylli Zicishti - PS, 29,800 results or Piro Kapurani - LSI, 2,530 results

Vlore District

88. Edi Rama - PS, 3,380,000 results
89. Astrit Patozi - PD, 89,600 results
90. Valentina Leskaj - PS, 67,200 results
91. Koco Kokedhima - PS, 20,100 results
92. Arben Ristani - PD, 73,800 results
93. Luiza Xhuvani - PS, 111,000 results
94. Liljana Elmazi - PD, 3,630 results
95. Fatmri Toci - PS, 36,300 results
96. Andrea Marto - PBDNJ², 4,940 results
97. Dashamir Tahiri - PDIU, 52,900 results
98. Vangjel Dule - PBDNJ, 121,000 results. Outside chance for Arben Malaj, 797,000 results or Shkelqim Selami - LSI, 5,690 results or Engjell Bejtaj - PSD, 3,220 results
99. Ardian Kollozi - PD, 31,400 results, Shkelqim Selami - LSI

Shkoder District

100. Jozefina Topalli - PD, 705,000 results
101. Mimoza Hafizi - PS, 12,200 results
102. Helidon Bushati - PD, 5,820 results
103. Voltana Ademi - PD, 6,100 results
104. Tom Doshi - PS, 79,300 results
105. Nard Ndoka - PDK¹, 153,000 results
106. Paulin Sterkaj - PS, 20,600 results
107. Gjovalin Bzhetaj - PD, 365 results
108. Ndue Paluca - PD, 8,360 results, Agron Cela - LSI
109. Namik Kopliku - PS, 5,020 results. Outside chance Agron Cela - LSI, 6,470 results.
110. Bardh Spahia - PD, 23,200 results. Outside chance Gasper Kokaj - PR, 12,700 results or Pjeter Boshi - PDK, 506 results or Mark Molla - PAA, 1,250 results or Ndreke Ndoci - LDK, 137 results, Mark Frroku - PKDSH

Berat District

111. Fidel Ylli - PS, 112,000 results
112. Genc Pollo - PD, 159,000 results
113. Ermonela Felaj - PS, 39,100 results
114. Eduard Shalsi - PS, 101,000 results
115. Astrit Veliaj - PD, 111,000 results
116. Nasip Naco - LSI, 110,000 results
117. Eduart Bejko - PS, 2,770 results
118. Artan Lame - PS, 97,300 results or Lefter Maliqi - PD, 53,800 results, Gledjon Rehovica - LSI

Lezhe District

119. Aldo Bumci - PD, 162,000 results
120. Mimi Kodheli - PS, 47,600 results
121. Gjovalin Kadeli - PD, 47,100 results
122. Armando Prenga - PS, 13,400 results
123. Albina Deda - PD, 3,480 results
124. Vasil Bicaj - PD, 1,800 results
125. Arben Ndoka - PS, 19,300 results, Monika Kryemadhi - LSI

Diber District

126. Sherefedin Shehu - PD, 20,500 results
127. Shkelqim Cani - PS, 13,500 results
128. Bedri Hoxha - PD, 22,400 results
129. Roland Keta - PD, 7,430 results
130. Ulsi Manja - PS, 4,370 results
131. Ekrem Spahia - PLL¹, 23,200 results, Perparim Spahiu - LSI

Gjirokaster District

132. Arben Ahmetaj - PS, 99,700 results
133. Genc Ruli - PD, 146,000 results
134. Erion Veliaj - PS, 134,000 results
135. Spiro Ksera - PD, 90,100 results, Vangjel Tavo - LSI
136. Anastas Angjeli - PS, 49,900 results

Kukes District

137. Flamur Noka - PD, 205,000 results
138. Besnik Dushaj - PD, 4,380 results
139. Vexhi Mucmataj - PS, 531 results
140. Alban Zeneli - PD, 8,640 results

Notes

1 - Included in PD list

2 - Included in PS list

Now that all the calculations for each district are finished, we can predict the list of 140 deputies after the elections. I will list them for district and will use code coloring to distinguish their status (guaranteed, highly likely, 50-50 contest and outside chance). I will use bold and green for guaranteed deputies, green for highly likely ones, red for the 50-50 contests and grey for those with an outside chance.

To make things a little more interesting, for each name I will include an indication on how popular and well known each candidate is. The best indication for this is the number of Google search results displayed when searching for their full name.

So, finally here it's the list of the 140 deputies of the next Parliament.

Tirana District

1. Pandeli Majko - PS, 245,000 results
2. Sali Berisha - PD, 4,080,000 results
3. Saimir Tahiri - PS, 125,000 results
4. Myqerem Tafaj - PD, 72,200 results
5. Vasilika Hysi - PS, 42,600 results
6. Majlinda Bregu - PD, 264,000 results
7. Ditmir Bushati - PS, 152,000 results
8. Halim Kosova - PD, 108,000 results
9. Fatmir Xhafaj - PS, 48,400 results
10. Florion Mima - PD, 13,600 results
11. Ilir Meta - LSI, 1,260,000 results
12. Gerti Bogdani - PD, 113,000 results
13. Lindita Nikolla - PS, 26,700 results
14. Dashamir Shehi - LZHK^1,,42,500 results
15. Besnik Baraj - PS, 39,500 results
16. Jorida Tabaku - PD, 40,800 results
17. Xhemal Qefalia - PS, 18,900 results
18. Edi Paloka - PD, 49,400 results
19. Sadri Abazi - PS, 16,600 results
20. Keltis Kruja - PD, 12,600 results
21. Parid Cara - PS, 21,000 results
22. Kastriot Islami - PD, 347,000 results
23. Spartak Braho - LSI², 23,800 results
24. Asllan Dogjani - PD, 54,000 results
25. Artan Gaci - PS, 37,800 results
26. Visar Zhiti - PD, 279,000 results
27. Pjerin Ndreu - PS, 40,900 results
28. Ylli Shehu - PR, 22,100 results or Arben Qirjako - PD, 10,400 results or Shkelqim Barushi- LZHK, 51 results
29. Rakip Suli - PS, 31,800 results
30. Ylli Shehu - PR, 22,100 results or Arben Qirjako - PD, 10,400 results or Shkelqim Barushi- LZHK, 51 results
31. Milena Harito - PS, 31,100 results or Klajda Gjosha - LSI, 93,900 results or Gentian Deliallisi - PD, 412 results or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK, 507,000 results or Bamir Topi - FRD, 1,090,000 results. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD, 88,500 results or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ, 172 results or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU, 25,200 results
32. Milena Harito - PS, 31,100 results or Dashamir Peza - PS,  13,200 results or Klajda Gjosha - LSI, 93,900 results or Gentian Deliallisi - PD, 412 results or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK, 507,000 results or Bamir Topi - FRD, 1,090,000 results. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD, 88,500 results or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ, 172 results or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU, 25,200 results

 Fieri District

33. Gramoz Ruci - PS, 93,700 results
34. Sokol Olldashi - PD, 242,000 results
35. Erion Brace - PS, 45,900 results
36. Mesila Doda - PD, 98,100 results
37. Eglantina Gjermeni - PS, 35,700 results
38. Ilirjan Celibashi - PS, 19,500 results
39. Kosma Dashi - PD, 7 results
40. Armando Subashi - PS, 25,300 results
41. Shpetim Idrizi - PDIU¹, 218,000 results
42. Arben Cuko - PS, 19,600 results
43. Petrit Vasili - LSI, 109,000 results
44. Bedri Mihaj - PD, 5,770 results
45. Piro Lutaj - PS, 22,800 results
46. Omer Mamo - PDIU, 8,250 results. Outside chance for Dritan Prifti, 175,000 results, Eduart Sharka - PR, 580 results, Kadri Gega - LZHK, 1,480 results, Altin Dauti - AK, 3,570 results, Shpetim Axhani - PLL, 549 results
47. Majlinda Bufi - PS, 1,590 results
48. Ervin Koci - PS, 14,800 results or Myslim Murrizi - PD, 5,110 results

Elbasan District

49. Ben Blushi - PS, 136,000 results
50. Arben Imami - PD, 542,000 results
51. Damian Gjiknuri - PS, 66,000 results
52. Eduard Selami - PD, 141,000 results
53. Evis Kushi - PS, 23,000 results
54. Ardian Turku - PD, 18,800 results
55. Alfred Peza - PS, 128,000 results
56. Luciano Boci - PD, 81,110 results
57. Taulant Balla - PS, 189,000 results
58. Dashnor Sula - PD, 29,000 results
59. Edmond Haxhinasto - LSI, 229,000 results
60. Arbjola Halimi - PD, 2,700 results
61. Musa Ulqini - PS, 17,900 results
62. Aurel Bylykbashi - PD, 16,000 results or Arben Kamami - PS, 2,670 results. Outside chance for Luan Duzha - PR, 8,690 results,  or Ramazan Braho - PAA, 1 result or Rezart Kovaci - PDK, 981 results.

Durres District

63. Eduard Halimi - PD, 159,000 results
64. Blendi Klosi - PS, 108,000 results
65. Igli Cara - PD, 26,600 results
66. Klodiana Spahiu - PS, 73,700 results
67. Albana Vokshi - PD, 36,400 results
68. Ilir Beqaj - PS, 9,590 results
69. Gent Strazimiri - PD, 18,300 results
70. Lefter Koka - LSI, 69,700 results
71. Oerd Bylykbashi - PD, 20,200 results
72. Namik Dokle - PS, 77,100 results
73. Osman Metalla - PD, 21,400 results
74. Gentian Bejko - PS, 6,200 results
75. Vullnet Topalli - PD, 8,810 results or Agron Duka - PR, 52,200 results. Outside chance for Gazmend Oketa - FRD, 134,000 results.

Korce District

76. Bashkim Fino - PS, 149,000 results
77. Ridvan Bode - PD, 148,000 results
78. Arta Dade - PS, 128,000 results
79. Eleina Qirici - PD, 3,050 results
80. Olta Xhacka - PS, 15,900 results
81. Edmond Spaho - PD, 19,600 results
82. Ilirian Pendavinji - PS, 3,320 results
83. Fatmir Mehdiu - PR¹, 211,000 results
84. Ilir Xhakolli - PS, 12,300 results
85. Gjergji Papa - PD, 9,470 results
86. Ylli Zicishti - PS, 29,800 results or Piro Kapurani - LSI, 2,530 results
87. Fatbardh Kadilli - PD, 22,400 results or Ardit Konomi - PS, 4,320 results or Ylli Zicishti - PS, 29,800 results or Piro Kapurani - LSI, 2,530 results

Vlore District

88. Edi Rama - PS, 3,380,000 results
89. Astrit Patozi - PD, 89,600 results
90. Valentina Leskaj - PS, 67,200 results
91. Koco Kokedhima - PS, 20,100 results
92. Arben Ristani - PD, 73,800 results
93. Luiza Xhuvani - PS, 111,000 results
94. Liljana Elmazi - PD, 3,630 results
95. Fatmri Toci - PS, 36,300 results
96. Andrea Marto - PBDNJ², 4,940 results
97. Dashamir Tahiri - PDIU, 52,900 results
98. Vangjel Dule - PBDNJ, 121,000 results. Outside chance for Arben Malaj, 797,000 results or Shkelqim Selami - LSI, 5,690 results or Engjell Bejtaj - PSD, 3,220 results
99. Ardian Kollozi - PD, 31,400 results

Shkoder District

100. Jozefina Topalli - PD, 705,000 results
101. Mimoza Hafizi - PS, 12,200 results
102. Helidon Bushati - PD, 5,820 results
103. Voltana Ademi - PD, 6,100 results
104. Tom Doshi - PS, 79,300 results
105. Nard Ndoka - PDK¹, 153,000 results
106. Paulin Sterkaj - PS, 20,600 results
107. Gjovalin Bzhetaj - PD, 365 results
108. Ndue Paluca - PD, 8,360 results
109. Namik Kopliku - PS, 5,020 results. Outside chance Agron Cela - LSI, 6,470 results.
110. Bardh Spahia - PD, 23,200 results. Outside chance Gasper Kokaj - PR, 12,700 results or Pjeter Boshi - PDK, 506 results or Mark Molla - PAA, 1,250 results or Ndreke Ndoci - LDK, 137 results

Berat District

111. Fidel Ylli - PS, 112,000 results
112. Genc Pollo - PD, 159,000 results
113. Ermonela Felaj - PS, 39,100 results
114. Eduard Shalsi - PS, 101,000 results
115. Astrit Veliaj - PD, 111,000 results
116. Nasip Naco - LSI, 110,000 results
117. Eduart Bejko - PS, 2,770 results
118. Artan Lame - PS, 97,300 results or Lefter Maliqi - PD, 53,800 results

Lezhe District

119. Aldo Bumci - PD, 162,000 results
120. Mimi Kodheli - PS, 47,600 results
121. Gjovalin Kadeli - PD, 47,100 results
122. Armando Prenga - PS, 13,400 results
123. Albina Deda - PD, 3,480 results
124. Vasil Bicaj - PD, 1,800 results
125. Arben Ndoka - PS, 19,300 results

Diber District

126. Sherefedin Shehu - PD, 20,500 results
127. Shkelqim Cani - PS, 13,500 results
128. Bedri Hoxha - PD, 22,400 results
129. Roland Keta - PD, 7,430 results
130. Ulsi Manja - PS, 4,370 results
131. Ekrem Spahia - PLL¹, 23,200 results

Gjirokaster District

132. Arben Ahmetaj - PS, 99,700 results
133. Genc Ruli - PD, 146,000 results
134. Erion Veliaj - PS, 134,000 results
135. Spiro Ksera - PD, 90,100 results
136. Anastas Angjeli - PS, 49,900 results

Kukes District

137. Flamur Noka - PD, 205,000 results
138. Besnik Dushaj - PD, 4,380 results
139. Vexhi Mucmataj - PS, 531 results
140. Alban Zeneli - PD, 8,640 results

Notes

1 - Included in PD list

2 - Included in PS list

At last we completed all other districts and it's the turn of Tirana which is both the largest district with 32 mandates and the hottest one. Excluding Tirana things are pretty much even, with the PD coalition very likely to get 51 mandates and the PS coalition very likely to get 53 mandates, so Tirana is expected to be the decisive vote. The results of the 2009 elections projected in the 2013 coalitions give the same result with each coalition getting 16 mandates. Now let's look a bit more closely at the different factors that may influence the result in Tirana:

1. FRD of Bamir Topi is expected to get an considerable number of votes. It's difficult to make a prediction, but considering the fact that more than 11,000 votes are needed to get one mandate, I would give at least a 50% chance. Also it's reasonable to say that most of those votes will come from those of PD.
2. AK of Kreshnik Spahiu is also expected to get some support. Again it's very difficult to make a precise prediction, but I would expect to challenge the 11,000 votes barrier for one mandate. In this case the distribution of votes it's more difficult to judge, but at least some of them will be from the extrem camp of PS supporters.
3. LZHK of Dashamir Shehi this time is part of the PD coalition and should have a good chance to win one mandate.

Going back at the numbers from the 2009 elections the PS coalition is leading by about 10 thousand votes and is pretty much guaranteed to win 16 mandates. Also with less than 0.5% more votes it can win the 17^th mandate, while to get the 18^th mandate the difference is about 7% and we can rule it out. On the other hand the PD coalition needs a difference of about 6% to win more than 16 mandate which we can also rule out. So in total for Tirana district:

• PS coalition is guaranteed to win 15 mandates and likely 16 mandates. Inside the coalition LSI is guaranteed to win 1 mandate and is very close to win the 2^nd one. PSD and PBDNJ are the remaining larger parties and those have only an outside chance.
• PD coalition is guaranteed to win 14 mandates and likely 15 mandates. Inside the coalition both PR and LZHK have a very good chance to win 1 mandate, while PDIU has only an outside chance to win it from PR or LZHK.
• The last mandate is up for grabs between PS coalition, PD coalition, FRD and AK.

Country wise the final tables at the party level are:

Outcome with a probability of 99%

Outcome with a probability of 99.9%

Outside chance (1%)

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
• PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.
• PR, PLL, LZHK, AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from either PDIU or PD) in Fier.
• PSD or PBDNJ to win one mandate (from within the PS coalition) in Tirane.
• PDUI to win one mandate (from within the PD coalition) in Tirane.

Hot contests (50-50)

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11^th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12^th mandate.
• PD-PR in Durres for the 13^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Fier for the 16^th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Tirana for the last mandate within the coalition.
• PD-PR-LZHK in Tirana for the two last mandates within the coalition.
• PD-PS-FRD-AK in Tirana for the two last mandates.

At the coalitions level the final tables are:

Outcome with a probability of 99%

Outcome with a probability of 99.9%

Outside chance (1%)

• PD coalition to get 5 mandates (and PS coalition only 2) in Lezhe.
• Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS coalition to get 6) in Vlore.
• PS coalition to get one extra mandate from the PD coalition in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate (from PD coalition) in Durres.
• AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from PD coalition) in Fier.

Hot contests (50-50)

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 12^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Fier for the 16^th mandate.
• PD-PS-FRD-AK in Tirane for the 31^th and 32^th mandates.

So after all these calculations there is no clear cut winner. All will be decided depending on the winner of the last mandates in Berat, Korce, Elbasan, Fier and Tirana.

Fier is second largest district after Tirana and potentially one of decisive districts with a total of 16 mandates. In the 2009 elections the PS coalition won 9 mandates, LSI one mandate and PD 6 mandates. Those results projected in the 2013 elections give the PS coalition only 9 mandates and the PD coalition gets 7 mandates (the extra mandate goes to PDIU). However the difference between the 10^th mandate for the PS coalition and the 7^th mandate of the PD coalition is less than 1% which make it the next hot contest. Another factor to consider is that Dritan Prifti is an independent candidate in Fier and it's expected to get votes from those of LSI. However there's only an outside chance for him to get a mandate and on the other hand LSI is guaranteed to keep the mandate because now it's inside a coalition and only about 5,000 votes are needed. From the new "entries", there's no indication that FRD will play any major role, while AK will probably get a considerable number of votes which give it an outside chance.

Going down inside the PD coalition, PDIU is very likely to get 1 mandate considering that now it's stronger than in 2009. Also PR, PLL and LZHK have an outside chance, but it's unlikely that any of them will surpass PDIU. That leaves PD with the remaining mandates, 6 in case the coalition gets 7 mandates and 5 otherwise. On the other side, as I said above, LSI is guaranteed to keep its mandate. The only other party with a chance is PSD, but with LSI inside the coalition its chance are null, so the rest of the mandates goes to PS.

In summary, the prediction for Fier is:

• PS guaranteed 8 mandates.
• PD guaranteed 5 mandates.
• LSI guaranteed 1 mandate.
• PDIU very likely to get 1 mandate. Outside chance for Dritan Prifti, PR, PLL, LZHK, AK.
• 50-50 contest between PS and PD for the last mandate.

Country wise the tables are

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

 With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
• PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.
• PR, PLL, LZHK, AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from either PDIU or PD) in Fier.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11^th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12^th mandate.
• PD-PR in Durres for the 13^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Fier for the 16^th mandate.

Now only Tirana is left, which of course is the hottest and more interesting district. Happy reading until next post :)

With 14 mandates, Elbasan is the 3rd biggest district and provides 14 mandates in total. In the 2009 elections it was all equal with PD and PS each winning 7 mandates. Those results projected on the 2013 coalitions give the same result, but inside the PS coalition, PS gets 6 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. However, let's look a bit more closely at the numbers:

1. There's a very very small margin between the 7^th mandate of the PD coalition and the 8^th mandate of the PS coalition. Basically the fight for the 14^th mandate is a 50-50 contest between the PD coalition and PS coalition.
2. Inside the PD coalition there are three parties: PR, PAA and PDK with an outside chance to get the last mandate. They need 600 to 1,400 more votes than in 2009.
3. Inside the PS coalition LSI is guaranteed to get one mandate, while the other parties have no chance.
4. There is nothing to suggest that neither of the parties FRD or AK are to get a significant number of votes in Elbasan.

So in total, Elbasan should be a straightforward district with:

• PS guaranteed (99.9%) 6 mandates.
• PD guaranteed (99.9%) 6 mandates.
• LSI guaranteed (99.9%) 1 mandate.
• A 50-50 contest between PD and PS for the 14^th mandate. In case it goes to PD, there's an outside chance for PR, PAA or PDK to get it.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
• PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11^th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12^th mandate.
• PD-PR in Durres for the 13^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14^th mandate.

Only 2 districts to go, with Fier next in list.

Durres is the 4^th biggest district and produces 13 mandates. In the 2009 elections, PD won 7 mandates, PS 5 and LSI 1. Those results projected using the 2013 coalitions give 7 mandates to the PD coalition and 6 mandates to the PS coalition. However things are a bit more complicated in Durres, for the following reasons:

• One of the leading figures of PD, Gazmend Oketa, has left PD for FRD and it's expected to get some votes from PD.
• Ex PS member, Agron Duka, is leading the PR list in Durres (inside PD coalition). It's expected to get votes from the PS coalition and mostly from LSI.
• AK also is expected to get some votes with most of them coming from the PS coalition.

Combining the above points, my prediction for Durres is:

• It's very likely (99%) that the PD coalition will keep 7 mandates.
• Also, it's highly likely (99.9%) that the PS coalition will get 6 mandates.
• There's an outside chance for FRD to get the 13^th mandate from PD coalition.

Inside the PD coalition, PD will get 6 mandates, but the 7^th is a 50-50 contest between PD and PR. While inside the PS coalition, there should be no surprises with PS getting 5 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. So in total, for Durres we have:

• PD is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 6 mandates.
• PS is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 5 mandates.
• LSI is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
• There's a 50-50 contest between PD and PR for the 13^th mandate.
• There's a outside chance (1%) for FRD to get the 13^th mandate from either PD or PR.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11^th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12^th mandate.
• PD-PR in Durres for the 13^th mandate.

Still 3 districts to go, with Elbasan next in list.

The district of Korca is the only one where the result of a the 2009 elections was a "draw " between PD and PS. Using the same number of votes for each party, but combining them using the 2013 coalitions the result stays the same, but with the PS coalition having around 6,000 votes more than PD coalition. If we convert the number in percentages, it turns out that the PS coalition has to get about 1,5% of votes from the PD coalition to get the 7^th mandate. On the other hand, PD coalition needs a change of 6.5% to get the 7^th mandate and we can rule that out. So basically the PS coalition is guaranteed to get 6 mandates, while PD coalition to get 5 mandates. For the 12 mandate, given that the PD coalition is in power from 8 years, one would expect a real contest for it and we can classify as a hot contest.

Moving inside each coalition, the situation in the PD coalition is pretty clear, meaning that PD will get all the mandates. Only PR has a significant number of votes and it would still need to double them to get one mandate, which is highly unlikely. Inside the PS coalition things are more flexible. With the LSI joining the coalition the other smaller parties (PBDNJ and PSD) have no chance, but LSI is pretty close to get one mandate. It needs around 500 more votes to get it so basically it will be another hot contest between PS and LSI. So in total, for the Korca district we have:

• PS guaranteed 5 mandates
• PD guaranteed 5 mandates
• One hot contest between PD-PS for the 11th mandate
• One hot contest between PS-LSI for the 12th mandate

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI or PSD to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11^th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12^th mandate.

Still 4 districts to go, with Durres next in list.

Today, we'll analyze Vlore one of the strongest districts for PS. In the 2009 elections the PS coalition got 7 mandates and the PD coalition 5 mandates. PS and its allies are hoping to get one more mandate hits time around, but let's analyze how likely that is. The votes and mandates from the 2009 elections using the current coalitions are here. Using those values the mandates do not change, however the difference is small. There's only 3% difference between the 8^th mandate for PS coalition and the 5^th mandate for the PD coalition. In normal condition that would have been possible for the opposition, but in this case there's an additional factor: Arben Malaj, an deputy of PS is running as a independent candidate and is expected to get votes from the PS coalition. Under this condition it's unlikely for the mandates of each coalition to change. On the other hand Malaj needs about 8,500 votes to get one mandate, which also is unlikely, but even in the case he gets them and only half of those votes come from the PS votes, he will get the mandate from the PS coalition, not from PD coalition. So, at the coalition level, we can be confident (99% probability) that the PS coalition will get 7 mandates and the PD coalition will get 5 mandates. There's an outside chance (around 1%) for Malaj to get one mandate, PS coalition to get 6 mandates and PD coalition to get 5 mandates.

Moving down to each coalition things get interesting. Inside the PD coalition, PDIU is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get one mandate and the rest (4 mandates) go to PD. On the other hand, things are a bit more complicated for the PS coalitions. Again, PBDNJ is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get one mandate. In case the PS coalition gets 7 mandates in total, there's an outside chance for LSI or PSD to get one mandate (they need less than 1,500 votes for that) and leave PS with only 5 mandates. Now if we put everything together it looks like this:

• PS is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 5 mandates. Also, it's very likely (99%) for PS to get the 6th mandate.
• PD is very likely (99%) to get 4 mandates.
• PDIU is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
• PBDNJ is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
• LSI has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.
• PSD has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.
• Malaj has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI or PSD to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.

There are still 5 districts to analyze, starting with Korce.

There are still 37 days until election day and we're getting close to analyze the big districts which will be the one deciding the outcome. Today we'll analyze Shkoder, one of the traditional PD strong zones. As always you can find the results of the 2009 elections, updated to match the 2013 coalitions here. At the coalition level the result is 7-4 in favor of PD coalition (the same as in 2009). By including PDK in the coalition, it adds more than 3,000 votes to the PD coalition and confirms the 7^th mandate. The  new parties (FRD & AK) are expected to get some votes, but nothing that will change the big picture.

As you can see there has to be a difference bigger than 7% for PS to get one more mandate and on the other way bigger than 11% for PD to get one more mandate. So can say be very confident (99.9% probability) than the results in 2013 will be 7 mandates for the PD coalition and 4 mandates for the PS coalition. Inside both coalitions, the smaller parties have a chance to get one mandate. In the PD coalition PDK needs about 1,000 more votes to get one mandate, so there's an outside chance for that. Even PR, LDK and PAA need less than 1,500 votes to get one mandate, so they have an outside chance too. In the PS coalitions, LSI needs about 2,000 more votes to get one mandate which is very difficult, but not impossible. The other parties need more than 2,500 and we can rule them out.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.

Next week we move to analyze Vlore.