Albert Blog

Tonight at 18:00 CET Germany plays the last game in the group stage against USA in Recife. Germany is almost guaranteed to qualify, unless they loose by several goals and at the same time Ghana or Portugal win by a big margin (very unlikely). On the other hand depending on the tonight result Germany can "choose" the opponent for the next game as well as the "road" to the final. This raise the question: Should they play for the win, or should strategy come into play and calculate the best "route" to the final. First let's see possible opponents:

If Germany draws or win, they will qualify at the top of the group and the "leg" includes:

• Brasil
• Chille
• Uruguay
• Columbia
• France
• Nigeria
• Algeria/Russia

On the other hand, if they loose, they most likely qualify and the "leg" includes:

• Netherlands
• Mexico
• Costa Rica
• Greece
• Argentina
• Switzerland
• most likely Belgium

On paper the second group of teams looks easier. However to have a better picture let's analyze most likely team to face in each round, as well as the place/time where the game will be played.

In the first scenario, we have:

• Last 16: 30 June, Against Algeria/Russia in Porto Alegre, 17:00 local time. Rainy, Temperature 16°, Real Feel 13°, Humidity 80%
• Quarter final: 4 July, Most likely against France in Rio de Janeiro, 13:00 local time. Cloudy, Temperature 26°, Real Feel 28°, Humidity 68%
• Semi final: 8 July, Most likely against Brasil in Belo Horizonte, 17:00 local time. Cloudy, Temperature 26°, Real Feel 25°, Humidity 40%

In the second scenario, we have:

• Last 16: 1 July, Against Belgium in Salvador, 17:00 local time. Cloudy, Temperature 25°, Real Feel 26°, Humidity 79%
• Quarter final: 5 July, Most likely against Argentina in Brasilia, 13:00 local time. Sunny, Temperature 27°, Real Feel 27°, Humidity 31%
• Semi final: 9 July, Most likely against Netherlands/Mexico in Sao Paulo, 17:00 local time. Cloudy, Temperature 16°, Real Feel 15°, Humidity 66%

With this comparison, the differences between the two routes are small. If we take into account the positive energy of a win then the best options is first one. So no strategy this time...just go out and play for the win :)

Today, the 20th FIFA World Cup will start in Brazil. As a German fan, it's not acceptable to not post something about that :)

In the preliminary round Germany won all but one match (that unbelievable 4-4 draw with Sweden) and as always are one of the favorites. The friendly matches weren't that promising, but that has always been the case with Germany. However what's a problem is the injury of Marko Reus, forcing him to miss the World Cup. Undoubtedly he's one of the best attacking players of Germany and his absence will be missed, but hopefully the others will step up. So the squad that Low, took in Brasil is:

Goalkeepers: Neuer, Weedenfeller, Zieler

Defence: Grosskreutz, Hoewedes, Hummels, Lahm, Mertesacker, Boateng, Mustafi, Durm

Midfield: Ginter, Khedira, Schweinsteiger, Oezil, Schuerrle, Podolski, Muller, Draxler, Kroos, Goetze, Kramer

Attack: Klose

There are still some uncertainties about who will be the starting eleven, considering the injuries of Neuer, Schweinsteiger, Khedira, as well as the age of Klose. Based on the latest matches, I think Low will start with:

Neuer - Boateng, Mertesacker, Hummels, Howedes - Lahm, Schweinsteiger - Ozil, Kroos, Muller - Goetze

 while I would like:

Neuer - Howedes , Mertesacker, Hummels, Durm - Lahm, Schweinsteiger - Schuerrle, Goetze, Muller - Klose

We have to wait a few more days to see the starting eleven against Portugal.

So what about my prediction for the tournament? For me it's time that an European team wins it in South America and it has to be Germany. In the last 4 tournaments Germany was three times in the semi-finals and once in the final and without some strange decisions by Low should have won it once! They have a very good squad and now it's time to deliver. Regarding the opposition, Brasil has a strong squad as always, but nothing fearsome; Argentina has Messi, but the rest are mediocre; Spain isn't shining anymore and France without Ribery it's not scary; Italy has no star, but if they get past the group stage, you never know :). Still me prediction is:

Group stage

- Win 3-1 against Portugal

- Win 1-0 against Ghana

- Draw 1-1 against USA

Round of 16

- As winner of group they will play the runner up of Group H, which I predict will be Russia. Result 2-0

Quarter-finals

- The opponent will be the winner of the match between winner of group E and runner up of group F. My prediction is that will be Switzerland and the result 4-1.

Semi-finals

- At this stage the opponent will be the winner of groups A or C, or runner up of groups B or D. It has to be Brasil and Germany will win on penalties after a 2-2 draw.

Final

- Uruguay will be the surprise team and will reach the final having beaten Spain and Argentina along the way. Germany wins the final 1-0 :)

Enjoy the World Cup and may Germany win it!