At last we completed all other districts and it's the turn of Tirana which is both the largest district with 32 mandates and the hottest one. Excluding Tirana things are pretty much even, with the PD coalition very likely to get 51 mandates and the PS coalition very likely to get 53 mandates, so Tirana is expected to be the decisive vote. The results of the 2009 elections projected in the 2013 coalitions give the same result with each coalition getting 16 mandates. Now let's look a bit more closely at the different factors that may influence the result in Tirana:
- FRD of Bamir Topi is expected to get an considerable number of votes. It's difficult to make a prediction, but considering the fact that more than 11,000 votes are needed to get one mandate, I would give at least a 50% chance. Also it's reasonable to say that most of those votes will come from those of PD.
- AK of Kreshnik Spahiu is also expected to get some support. Again it's very difficult to make a precise prediction, but I would expect to challenge the 11,000 votes barrier for one mandate. In this case the distribution of votes it's more difficult to judge, but at least some of them will be from the extrem camp of PS supporters.
- LZHK of Dashamir Shehi this time is part of the PD coalition and should have a good chance to win one mandate.
Going back at the numbers from the 2009 elections the PS coalition is leading by about 10 thousand votes and is pretty much guaranteed to win 16 mandates. Also with less than 0.5% more votes it can win the 17th mandate, while to get the 18th mandate the difference is about 7% and we can rule it out. On the other hand the PD coalition needs a difference of about 6% to win more than 16 mandate which we can also rule out. So in total for Tirana district:
- PS coalition is guaranteed to win 15 mandates and likely 16 mandates. Inside the coalition LSI is guaranteed to win 1 mandate and is very close to win the 2nd one. PSD and PBDNJ are the remaining larger parties and those have only an outside chance.
- PD coalition is guaranteed to win 14 mandates and likely 15 mandates. Inside the coalition both PR and LZHK have a very good chance to win 1 mandate, while PDIU has only an outside chance to win it from PR or LZHK.
- The last mandate is up for grabs between PS coalition, PD coalition, FRD and AK.
Country wise the final tables at the party level are:
Outcome with a probability of 99%
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
7 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
4 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Durres |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Elbasan |
6 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Fier |
5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| Tirana |
13 |
14 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
61 |
61 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
Outcome with a probability of 99.9%
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
6 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
3 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Durres |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Elbasan |
6 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Fier |
5 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Tirana |
12 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
58 |
57
|
5 |
1 |
1 |
Outside chance (1%)
- PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
- PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
- LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
- LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
- FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
- PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.
- PR, PLL, LZHK, AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from either PDIU or PD) in Fier.
- PSD or PBDNJ to win one mandate (from within the PS coalition) in Tirane.
- PDUI to win one mandate (from within the PD coalition) in Tirane.
Hot contests (50-50)
- PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
- PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
- PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
- PD-PR in Durres for the 13th mandate.
- PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14th mandate.
- PD-PS in Fier for the 16th mandate.
- PS-LSI in Tirana for the last mandate within the coalition.
- PD-PR-LZHK in Tirana for the two last mandates within the coalition.
- PD-PS-FRD-AK in Tirana for the two last mandates.
At the coalitions level the final tables are:
Outcome with a probability of 99%
| District |
PD coalition |
PS coalition |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
| Berat |
2 |
5 |
| Shkoder |
7 |
4 |
| Vlore |
5 |
7 |
| Korce |
5 |
6 |
| Durres |
7 |
6 |
| Elbasan |
6 |
7 |
| Fier |
6 |
9 |
| Tirane |
15 |
15 |
| Total |
66 |
68 |
Outcome with a probability of 99.9%
| District |
PD coalition |
PS coalition |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
2 |
| Berat |
2 |
5 |
| Shkoder |
7 |
4 |
| Vlore |
4 |
6 |
| Korce |
5 |
6 |
| Durres |
6 |
6 |
| Elbasan |
6 |
7 |
| Fier |
5 |
9 |
| Tirane |
14 |
15 |
| Total |
62 |
66
|
Outside chance (1%)
- PD coalition to get 5 mandates (and PS coalition only 2) in Lezhe.
- Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS coalition to get 6) in Vlore.
- PS coalition to get one extra mandate from the PD coalition in Vlore.
- FRD to get one mandate (from PD coalition) in Durres.
- AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from PD coalition) in Fier.
Hot contests (50-50)
- PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
- PD-PS in Korce for the 12th mandate.
- PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14th mandate.
- PD-PS in Fier for the 16th mandate.
- PD-PS-FRD-AK in Tirane for the 31th and 32th mandates.
So after all these calculations there is no clear cut winner. All will be decided depending on the winner of the last mandates in Berat, Korce, Elbasan, Fier and Tirana.