While right now there's a hot debate in Albania about the CEC (Central Elections Commission) and all the political issues, we continue with our math calculations, which are much simpler and definite :)
The district of Lezhe was one of those district that were hotly debated in the last elections and where in theory there can be changes in the mandates. However let's look at the numbers and see what's possible. The result in 2009 was 4 mandates for PD and 3 mandates for PS (details can be found here). I have combined the results of PD coalition with those of LDK and LZHK and have done the same for PS and LSI. There are still a few questions mark about LDK and "Law and Justice" parties which in this district can get a combined of 4-5% of votes.
Regarding the new parties AK and FRD there's nothing to suggest they'll make any significant impact in Lezhe. So based on the 2009 numbers and the current situation, there's need to be a 17% change in favor of the PS coalition so it can get a fourth mandate. We can safely rule that out. For PD to get a fifth mandate, there's need to be a 9% change. I have set the "critical" mark to safely assume "no changes" at 10%, so there's a very slight chance (1%) for PD to get the fifth mandate. For this to happen, both LDK and "Law and Justice" parties should be part of the PD coalition and on top of that some votes have to flow from PS to PD.
To recap, in the case of Lezhe we have to go down to a probability of 99% in our prediction. So with a probability of 99%, PD will get 4 mandates in Lezhe, while PS will get 3 mandates. Inside coalitions there's no chance for smaller parties to get anything.
Country wise the table looks like this
With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
| Total |
13 |
9 |
Additionally, with a probability of 99.9% PD will get 13 mandates, while PS 8 mandates.
Next time is the turn of Berat :)
Every football fan around the World should have enjoyed the final moments of the last night Champions League game Dortmund vs Malaga. It's a classic that will be long remembered. Listen below to the live radio commentary on German and enjoy!
[youtube:x9e8l9d-CQ8]
The big news in Albania is the announced coalition between PS and LSI. It will certainly affect the outcome of the elections, but the calculations on Kukes & Gjirokaster are not affected and as we'll see Diber is not affected as well. You can find the calculations here. Now the LSI is confirmed as a PS ally, I have combined votes of them and also have done the same for PD, LZHK and PDK which are confirmed in the other coalition.
First we'll analyze the new parties, FRD and AK. It's quite difficult to argue than one of them can break the barrier of 10 thousands votes in Diber in order to get an mandate. There's nothing extraordinary to suggest that more than 15% of voters will go for one of them, so we can leave that out.
Turning back to the big coalitions, we can see that there's and 10% gap (-5% for PD & +5% for PD) for PS to get one more mandate from PD. The other way around is even more difficult, with a 20% gap. So we can safely assume (with a probability of 99.9%) that the PD coalition will get 4 mandates in Diber, while the PS coalition will get 2 mandates. Inside the PD coalition, one party has to get more than 15% to get a mandate, which means PD will get all 4 mandates, while in the PS coalition the hurdle is much bigger at more than 30% to get a mandate, so PS will get both mandates.
If we do a quick recap, until now, we have the table below.
With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
| Total |
9 |
6 |
Until next post analyzing Lezhe, have a nice time :)