After analyzing Kukes last time, today is the turn of Gjirokaster. You can find the 2009 results here. The Gjirokastra district elects five deputies and in 2009 PS won three mandates, while PD won two mandates. As you can see the "fight" here is only between PD and PS. LSI is too far away to make an impact. Another party that could make an impact is PBDNJ (Human Rights Union Party). However based on the numbers, PBDNJ needs to win 3 to 4 times more votes to get a mandate, so that's very unlikely. That leaves us PD and PS:
- For PD to get a third mandate it will need to win 8% more votes than in 2009 and PS to loose 8%.
- For PS to get a fourth mandate it will need to win 8.5% more votes than in 2009 and PD to loose 8.5%.
Both scenarios are very unlikely, so again with a probability of 99.9%, PS will get 3 mandates in Gjirokaster and PD will get 2 mandates.
Next time si the turn of Diber.