Now that all parties and coalitions are registered in CEC, it's time to analyze Berat, one of the hotly contested districts. Regarding the coalitions there are no big surprises. PS and LSI have all left and far left parties in their coalitions, while PD includes most of the right specter, including PR, LDK, PDK and LZHK. Only two parties will contest the elections outside any coalition: FRD and AK, but none of them can make any impact on Berat.
The result of the 2009 elections for the Berat district can be found here. PS won 4 mandates, PD 3 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. I have combined the votes now based on the 2013 coalitions and you can see the calculations in the Spreadsheet. With those votes the new PS coalition will get 5 mandates and the PD coalition 3 mandates. However the difference between the possible 6th mandate for the PS coalition and the 3rd PD mandate is only 80 votes. Inside the PS coalitions, LSI is pretty safe to get 1 mandate whatever happens, while inside the PD coalitions it's pretty sure that PD will get all mandates.
Moving forward to the probabilities, only 0.5% separate the possibility for the PS to get one mandate from PD. If we leave out the last mandate, with a probability of 99.9%, PS will get 4 mandates, PD 2 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. The 8th mandate is basically a 50-50 fight between PD and PS.
Country wise the tables look like this.
With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
| Total |
15 |
13 |
1 |
With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
| Total |
15 |
12
|
1 |
Outside chance (1%):
- PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
Hot contests (50-50):
- PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
Next week we move to analyze Shkoder.