The big news in Albania is the announced coalition between PS and LSI. It will certainly affect the outcome of the elections, but the calculations on Kukes & Gjirokaster are not affected and as we'll see Diber is not affected as well. You can find the calculations here. Now the LSI is confirmed as a PS ally, I have combined votes of them and also have done the same for PD, LZHK and PDK which are confirmed in the other coalition.
First we'll analyze the new parties, FRD and AK. It's quite difficult to argue than one of them can break the barrier of 10 thousands votes in Diber in order to get an mandate. There's nothing extraordinary to suggest that more than 15% of voters will go for one of them, so we can leave that out.
Turning back to the big coalitions, we can see that there's and 10% gap (-5% for PD & +5% for PD) for PS to get one more mandate from PD. The other way around is even more difficult, with a 20% gap. So we can safely assume (with a probability of 99.9%) that the PD coalition will get 4 mandates in Diber, while the PS coalition will get 2 mandates. Inside the PD coalition, one party has to get more than 15% to get a mandate, which means PD will get all 4 mandates, while in the PS coalition the hurdle is much bigger at more than 30% to get a mandate, so PS will get both mandates.
If we do a quick recap, until now, we have the table below.
With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
| Total |
9 |
6 |
Until next post analyzing Lezhe, have a nice time :)