Tonight at 18:00 CET Germany plays the last game in the group stage against USA in Recife. Germany is almost guaranteed to qualify, unless they loose by several goals and at the same time Ghana or Portugal win by a big margin (very unlikely). On the other hand depending on the tonight result Germany can "choose" the opponent for the next game as well as the "road" to the final. This raise the question: Should they play for the win, or should strategy come into play and calculate the best "route" to the final. First let's see possible opponents:
If Germany draws or win, they will qualify at the top of the group and the "leg" includes:
- Brasil
- Chille
- Uruguay
- Columbia
- France
- Nigeria
- Algeria/Russia
On the other hand, if they loose, they most likely qualify and the "leg" includes:
- Netherlands
- Mexico
- Costa Rica
- Greece
- Argentina
- Switzerland
- most likely Belgium
On paper the second group of teams looks easier. However to have a better picture let's analyze most likely team to face in each round, as well as the place/time where the game will be played.
In the first scenario, we have:
- Last 16: 30 June, Against Algeria/Russia in Porto Alegre, 17:00 local time. Rainy, Temperature 16°, Real Feel 13°, Humidity 80%
- Quarter final: 4 July, Most likely against France in Rio de Janeiro, 13:00 local time. Cloudy, Temperature 26°, Real Feel 28°, Humidity 68%
- Semi final: 8 July, Most likely against Brasil in Belo Horizonte, 17:00 local time. Cloudy, Temperature 26°, Real Feel 25°, Humidity 40%
In the second scenario, we have:
- Last 16: 1 July, Against Belgium in Salvador, 17:00 local time. Cloudy, Temperature 25°, Real Feel 26°, Humidity 79%
- Quarter final: 5 July, Most likely against Argentina in Brasilia, 13:00 local time. Sunny, Temperature 27°, Real Feel 27°, Humidity 31%
- Semi final: 9 July, Most likely against Netherlands/Mexico in Sao Paulo, 17:00 local time. Cloudy, Temperature 16°, Real Feel 15°, Humidity 66%
With this comparison, the differences between the two routes are small. If we take into account the positive energy of a win then the best options is first one. So no strategy this time...just go out and play for the win :)