The district of Korca is the only one where the result of a the 2009 elections was a "draw " between PD and PS. Using the same number of votes for each party, but combining them using the 2013 coalitions the result stays the same, but with the PS coalition having around 6,000 votes more than PD coalition. If we convert the number in percentages, it turns out that the PS coalition has to get about 1,5% of votes from the PD coalition to get the 7th mandate. On the other hand, PD coalition needs a change of 6.5% to get the 7th mandate and we can rule that out. So basically the PS coalition is guaranteed to get 6 mandates, while PD coalition to get 5 mandates. For the 12 mandate, given that the PD coalition is in power from 8 years, one would expect a real contest for it and we can classify as a hot contest.
Moving inside each coalition, the situation in the PD coalition is pretty clear, meaning that PD will get all the mandates. Only PR has a significant number of votes and it would still need to double them to get one mandate, which is highly unlikely. Inside the PS coalition things are more flexible. With the LSI joining the coalition the other smaller parties (PBDNJ and PSD) have no chance, but LSI is pretty close to get one mandate. It needs around 500 more votes to get it so basically it will be another hot contest between PS and LSI. So in total, for the Korca district we have:
- PS guaranteed 5 mandates
- PD guaranteed 5 mandates
- One hot contest between PD-PS for the 11th mandate
- One hot contest between PS-LSI for the 12th mandate
Country wise the tables look like this.
With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
7 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
4 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
31 |
28 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
6 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
3 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
29 |
25
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
Outside chance (1%):
- PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
- PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
- LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
- LSI or PSD to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
- Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
Hot contests (50-50):
- PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
- PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
- PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
Still 4 districts to go, with Durres next in list.