Albert Blog

Now that all parties and coalitions are registered in CEC, it's time to analyze Berat, one of the hotly contested districts. Regarding the coalitions there are no big surprises. PS and LSI have all left and far left parties in their coalitions, while PD includes most of the right specter, including PR, LDK, PDK and LZHK. Only two parties will contest the elections outside any coalition: FRD and AK, but none of them can make any impact on Berat.

The result of the 2009 elections for the Berat district can be found here. PS won 4 mandates, PD 3 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. I have combined the votes now based on the 2013 coalitions and you can see the calculations in the Spreadsheet. With those votes the new PS coalition will get 5 mandates and the PD coalition 3 mandates. However the difference between the possible 6^th mandate for the PS coalition and the 3^rd PD mandate is only 80 votes. Inside the PS coalitions, LSI is pretty safe to get 1 mandate whatever happens, while inside the PD coalitions it's pretty sure that PD will get all mandates.

Moving forward to the probabilities, only 0.5% separate the possibility for the PS to get one mandate from PD. If we leave out the last mandate, with a probability of 99.9%, PS will get 4 mandates, PD 2 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. The 8^th mandate is basically a 50-50 fight between PD and PS.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.

Next week we move to analyze Shkoder.

While right now there's a hot debate in Albania about the CEC (Central Elections Commission) and all the political issues, we continue with our math calculations, which are much simpler and definite :)

The district of Lezhe was one of those district that were hotly debated in the last elections and where in theory there can be changes in the mandates. However let's look at the numbers and see what's possible. The result in 2009 was 4 mandates for PD and 3 mandates for PS (details can be found here). I have combined the results of PD coalition with those of LDK and LZHK and have done the same for PS and LSI. There are still a few questions mark about LDK and "Law and Justice" parties which in this district can get a combined of 4-5% of votes.

Regarding the new parties AK and FRD there's nothing to suggest they'll make any significant impact in Lezhe. So based on the 2009 numbers and the current situation, there's need to be a 17% change in favor of the PS coalition so it can get a fourth mandate. We can safely rule that out. For PD to get a fifth mandate, there's need to be a 9% change. I have set the "critical" mark to safely assume "no changes" at 10%, so there's a very slight chance (1%) for PD to get the fifth mandate. For this to happen, both LDK and "Law and Justice" parties should be part of the PD coalition and on top of that some votes have to flow from PS to PD.

To recap, in the case of Lezhe we have to go down to a probability of 99% in our prediction. So with a probability of 99%, PD will get 4 mandates in Lezhe, while PS will get 3 mandates. Inside coalitions there's no chance for smaller parties to get anything.

Country wise the table looks like this

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

Additionally, with a probability of 99.9% PD will get 13 mandates, while PS 8 mandates.

Next time is the turn of Berat :)