Durres is the 4th biggest district and produces 13 mandates. In the 2009 elections, PD won 7 mandates, PS 5 and LSI 1. Those results projected using the 2013 coalitions give 7 mandates to the PD coalition and 6 mandates to the PS coalition. However things are a bit more complicated in Durres, for the following reasons:
- One of the leading figures of PD, Gazmend Oketa, has left PD for FRD and it's expected to get some votes from PD.
- Ex PS member, Agron Duka, is leading the PR list in Durres (inside PD coalition). It's expected to get votes from the PS coalition and mostly from LSI.
- AK also is expected to get some votes with most of them coming from the PS coalition.
Combining the above points, my prediction for Durres is:
- It's very likely (99%) that the PD coalition will keep 7 mandates.
- Also, it's highly likely (99.9%) that the PS coalition will get 6 mandates.
- There's an outside chance for FRD to get the 13th mandate from PD coalition.
Inside the PD coalition, PD will get 6 mandates, but the 7th is a 50-50 contest between PD and PR. While inside the PS coalition, there should be no surprises with PS getting 5 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. So in total, for Durres we have:
- PD is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 6 mandates.
- PS is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 5 mandates.
- LSI is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
- There's a 50-50 contest between PD and PR for the 13th mandate.
- There's a outside chance (1%) for FRD to get the 13th mandate from either PD or PR.
Country wise the tables look like this.
With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
7 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
4 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Durres |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
37 |
33 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
6 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
3 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Durres |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
35 |
30
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
Outside chance (1%):
- PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
- PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
- LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
- LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
- FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
Hot contests (50-50):
- PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
- PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
- PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
- PD-PR in Durres for the 13th mandate.
Still 3 districts to go, with Elbasan next in list.