Albert Blog

The district of Korca is the only one where the result of a the 2009 elections was a "draw " between PD and PS. Using the same number of votes for each party, but combining them using the 2013 coalitions the result stays the same, but with the PS coalition having around 6,000 votes more than PD coalition. If we convert the number in percentages, it turns out that the PS coalition has to get about 1,5% of votes from the PD coalition to get the 7^th mandate. On the other hand, PD coalition needs a change of 6.5% to get the 7^th mandate and we can rule that out. So basically the PS coalition is guaranteed to get 6 mandates, while PD coalition to get 5 mandates. For the 12 mandate, given that the PD coalition is in power from 8 years, one would expect a real contest for it and we can classify as a hot contest.

Moving inside each coalition, the situation in the PD coalition is pretty clear, meaning that PD will get all the mandates. Only PR has a significant number of votes and it would still need to double them to get one mandate, which is highly unlikely. Inside the PS coalition things are more flexible. With the LSI joining the coalition the other smaller parties (PBDNJ and PSD) have no chance, but LSI is pretty close to get one mandate. It needs around 500 more votes to get it so basically it will be another hot contest between PS and LSI. So in total, for the Korca district we have:

• PS guaranteed 5 mandates
• PD guaranteed 5 mandates
• One hot contest between PD-PS for the 11th mandate
• One hot contest between PS-LSI for the 12th mandate

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI or PSD to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11^th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12^th mandate.

Still 4 districts to go, with Durres next in list.

Last week was one to remember for German fans and hopefully something that will be repeated again :) Here it's why:

• Thursday, May 23: Wolfsburg won the UEFA Women's Champions League beating Lyon 1-0 courtesy of a goal from Muller (yes, again it's another Muller). It was the 7^th Champions League win by a German team in 12 seasons (Frankfurt 3, Potsdam 2, Duisburg 1, Wolfsburg 1) since it started.
• Saturday, May 25: The first all German Champions League final took place in London. Bayern won 2-1 against Dortmund and returned the cup in Germany after 12 years. It was the 7^th cup for Germany (Bayern 5, Hamburg 1, Dortmund 1) in 15 finals contested by German teams. Bayern moved to 3rd place in the all time ranking after Real (9 cups) and Milan (7 cups).
• Sunday, May 26: Nico Rosberg won the Monaco Grand Prix in Formula 1 in a Mercedes-Benz car. It was the first win of the season for Rosberg and the first for Mercedes in Monaco since they returned to Formula 1 in 2010. Additionally Rosberg took Pole Position on Saturday, Vettel set the fastest lap of the race and Rosberg/Vettel completed the first 1-2 German podium since 2004 Japan Grand Prix (Michael and Ralf Schumacher).

 So congrats and long may it continue :)

Today, we'll analyze Vlore one of the strongest districts for PS. In the 2009 elections the PS coalition got 7 mandates and the PD coalition 5 mandates. PS and its allies are hoping to get one more mandate hits time around, but let's analyze how likely that is. The votes and mandates from the 2009 elections using the current coalitions are here. Using those values the mandates do not change, however the difference is small. There's only 3% difference between the 8^th mandate for PS coalition and the 5^th mandate for the PD coalition. In normal condition that would have been possible for the opposition, but in this case there's an additional factor: Arben Malaj, an deputy of PS is running as a independent candidate and is expected to get votes from the PS coalition. Under this condition it's unlikely for the mandates of each coalition to change. On the other hand Malaj needs about 8,500 votes to get one mandate, which also is unlikely, but even in the case he gets them and only half of those votes come from the PS votes, he will get the mandate from the PS coalition, not from PD coalition. So, at the coalition level, we can be confident (99% probability) that the PS coalition will get 7 mandates and the PD coalition will get 5 mandates. There's an outside chance (around 1%) for Malaj to get one mandate, PS coalition to get 6 mandates and PD coalition to get 5 mandates.

Moving down to each coalition things get interesting. Inside the PD coalition, PDIU is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get one mandate and the rest (4 mandates) go to PD. On the other hand, things are a bit more complicated for the PS coalitions. Again, PBDNJ is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get one mandate. In case the PS coalition gets 7 mandates in total, there's an outside chance for LSI or PSD to get one mandate (they need less than 1,500 votes for that) and leave PS with only 5 mandates. Now if we put everything together it looks like this:

• PS is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 5 mandates. Also, it's very likely (99%) for PS to get the 6th mandate.
• PD is very likely (99%) to get 4 mandates.
• PDIU is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
• PBDNJ is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
• LSI has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.
• PSD has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.
• Malaj has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI or PSD to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.

There are still 5 districts to analyze, starting with Korce.

There are still 37 days until election day and we're getting close to analyze the big districts which will be the one deciding the outcome. Today we'll analyze Shkoder, one of the traditional PD strong zones. As always you can find the results of the 2009 elections, updated to match the 2013 coalitions here. At the coalition level the result is 7-4 in favor of PD coalition (the same as in 2009). By including PDK in the coalition, it adds more than 3,000 votes to the PD coalition and confirms the 7^th mandate. The  new parties (FRD & AK) are expected to get some votes, but nothing that will change the big picture.

As you can see there has to be a difference bigger than 7% for PS to get one more mandate and on the other way bigger than 11% for PD to get one more mandate. So can say be very confident (99.9% probability) than the results in 2013 will be 7 mandates for the PD coalition and 4 mandates for the PS coalition. Inside both coalitions, the smaller parties have a chance to get one mandate. In the PD coalition PDK needs about 1,000 more votes to get one mandate, so there's an outside chance for that. Even PR, LDK and PAA need less than 1,500 votes to get one mandate, so they have an outside chance too. In the PS coalitions, LSI needs about 2,000 more votes to get one mandate which is very difficult, but not impossible. The other parties need more than 2,500 and we can rule them out.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.

Next week we move to analyze Vlore.

Now that all parties and coalitions are registered in CEC, it's time to analyze Berat, one of the hotly contested districts. Regarding the coalitions there are no big surprises. PS and LSI have all left and far left parties in their coalitions, while PD includes most of the right specter, including PR, LDK, PDK and LZHK. Only two parties will contest the elections outside any coalition: FRD and AK, but none of them can make any impact on Berat.

The result of the 2009 elections for the Berat district can be found here. PS won 4 mandates, PD 3 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. I have combined the votes now based on the 2013 coalitions and you can see the calculations in the Spreadsheet. With those votes the new PS coalition will get 5 mandates and the PD coalition 3 mandates. However the difference between the possible 6^th mandate for the PS coalition and the 3^rd PD mandate is only 80 votes. Inside the PS coalitions, LSI is pretty safe to get 1 mandate whatever happens, while inside the PD coalitions it's pretty sure that PD will get all mandates.

Moving forward to the probabilities, only 0.5% separate the possibility for the PS to get one mandate from PD. If we leave out the last mandate, with a probability of 99.9%, PS will get 4 mandates, PD 2 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. The 8^th mandate is basically a 50-50 fight between PD and PS.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.

Next week we move to analyze Shkoder.

Since last week the Worldwide media has been busy praising the Bayern team and the rise of the German football with Borussia Dortmund completing an all German Champions League Final. I believe even the most hardcore fans weren't expecting such a win against Barcelona, so the media is right to make such a "noise". However for the people that follow closely the Bundesliga and German football this has been coming for some time. Let me explain why:

1. For many years now, Bundesliga has been leading the standings for the average attendance. With about 45,000 spectators per match it has a huge lead over second place (Premier League) that has less than 35,000. This is a result of several factors that include big, modern stadiums, low ticket price, competitive games, etc.
2. For more than 20 years Bundesliga is leading the average goals per game statistics for the top 5 European Leagues (Bundesliga, Premier League, Primera Division, Seria A and Ligue 1). This is a clear indication that the league is playing attractive football.
3. Bundesliga is the only big league where all the clubs have solid financial foundations. DFB has very strict rules on the financial regulations and unlike other countries the 50+1 rule doesn't allow anyone to buy a club (50+1% of the club is owned by the fans).
4. All the work started by the DFB in early 2000 (the collapse of German football) is starting to pay back. Most of the clubs have excellent junior academies and every year more and more talents are making a mark.
5. In the last 10 years 5 different teams have won the Bundesliga (Bremen 04, Stuttgart 07, Wolfsburg 09, Dortmund 11, 12 and Bayern 05, 06, 08, 10, 13). In the same time in Premier League 4 teams (Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal) have won it (Chelsea and Manchester City after spending billions of dollars), in Primera Division only 3 teams (Valencia, Barcelona and Real Madrid) and in Seria A only 3 teams (Milan, Inter & Juventus). Only Ligue 1 has 5 different winners, but only after Lyon won 7 in a row. This is a clear indication that Bundesliga is the most competitive league, but most people failed to acknowledge that.

However aside from the fact that the World has started to praise the Bundesliga, the most significant factor of Bayern win (and Borussia's win as well) is the fact that a German team will win the Champions League. It's the first trophy for a German team (including clubs & National team) since Bayern win in 2001. The list of near misses is quite long and includes:

• National Team's lost final against Brasil in World Cup 2002.
• Bayer Leverkusen's lost final against Real Madrid in Champions League 2002.
• Borussia Dortmund's lost final against Feyenoord in Europa League 2002.
• National Team's lost semi-final against Italy in World Cup 2006.
• National Team's lost final against Spain in European Championship 2008.
• Werder Bremen's lost final against Shakhtar Donetsk in Europa League 2009.
• National Team's lost semi-final against Spain in World Cup 2010.
• Bayern Munich's lost final against Inter in Champions League 2010.
• National Team's lost semi-final against Italy in European Championship 2012.
• Bayern Munich's lost final against Chelsea in Champions League 2012.

Hopefully this Champions League win will be a big boost to the confidence of German clubs & players and many more will continue :)