With 14 mandates, Elbasan is the 3rd biggest district and provides 14 mandates in total. In the 2009 elections it was all equal with PD and PS each winning 7 mandates. Those results projected on the 2013 coalitions give the same result, but inside the PS coalition, PS gets 6 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. However, let's look a bit more closely at the numbers:
- There's a very very small margin between the 7th mandate of the PD coalition and the 8th mandate of the PS coalition. Basically the fight for the 14th mandate is a 50-50 contest between the PD coalition and PS coalition.
- Inside the PD coalition there are three parties: PR, PAA and PDK with an outside chance to get the last mandate. They need 600 to 1,400 more votes than in 2009.
- Inside the PS coalition LSI is guaranteed to get one mandate, while the other parties have no chance.
- There is nothing to suggest that neither of the parties FRD or AK are to get a significant number of votes in Elbasan.
So in total, Elbasan should be a straightforward district with:
- PS guaranteed (99.9%) 6 mandates.
- PD guaranteed (99.9%) 6 mandates.
- LSI guaranteed (99.9%) 1 mandate.
- A 50-50 contest between PD and PS for the 14th mandate. In case it goes to PD, there's an outside chance for PR, PAA or PDK to get it.
Country wise the tables look like this.
With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
7 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
4 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Durres |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Elbasan |
6 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
43 |
39 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
6 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
3 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Durres |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Elbasan |
6 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
41 |
36
|
3 |
1 |
1 |
Outside chance (1%):
- PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
- PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
- LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
- LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
- FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
- PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.
Hot contests (50-50):
- PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
- PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
- PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
- PD-PR in Durres for the 13th mandate.
- PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14th mandate.
Only 2 districts to go, with Fier next in list.