Albert Blog

I've tried in 2013 (see here) to predict elections in Albania and I was completely off :) However, since I like to do some analysis/predictions, I'm doing something this year as well. But I'm not sharing my super-advanced, sophisticated algorithm; I will just share my prediction:

Since based on the prediction, there are some close results, the potential changes are:

If we take the changes into account and do the totals, we have:

So it's very likely that PS will with the elections, but no party can win the necessary 71 seats to form the government. Everything will be decided by the post elections coalitions. In 4 weeks time, we'll know if I'm right this time :)

Today, we'll analyze Vlore one of the strongest districts for PS. In the 2009 elections the PS coalition got 7 mandates and the PD coalition 5 mandates. PS and its allies are hoping to get one more mandate hits time around, but let's analyze how likely that is. The votes and mandates from the 2009 elections using the current coalitions are here. Using those values the mandates do not change, however the difference is small. There's only 3% difference between the 8^th mandate for PS coalition and the 5^th mandate for the PD coalition. In normal condition that would have been possible for the opposition, but in this case there's an additional factor: Arben Malaj, an deputy of PS is running as a independent candidate and is expected to get votes from the PS coalition. Under this condition it's unlikely for the mandates of each coalition to change. On the other hand Malaj needs about 8,500 votes to get one mandate, which also is unlikely, but even in the case he gets them and only half of those votes come from the PS votes, he will get the mandate from the PS coalition, not from PD coalition. So, at the coalition level, we can be confident (99% probability) that the PS coalition will get 7 mandates and the PD coalition will get 5 mandates. There's an outside chance (around 1%) for Malaj to get one mandate, PS coalition to get 6 mandates and PD coalition to get 5 mandates.

Moving down to each coalition things get interesting. Inside the PD coalition, PDIU is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get one mandate and the rest (4 mandates) go to PD. On the other hand, things are a bit more complicated for the PS coalitions. Again, PBDNJ is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get one mandate. In case the PS coalition gets 7 mandates in total, there's an outside chance for LSI or PSD to get one mandate (they need less than 1,500 votes for that) and leave PS with only 5 mandates. Now if we put everything together it looks like this:

• PS is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 5 mandates. Also, it's very likely (99%) for PS to get the 6th mandate.
• PD is very likely (99%) to get 4 mandates.
• PDIU is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
• PBDNJ is pretty much guaranteed (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
• LSI has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.
• PSD has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.
• Malaj has an outside chance to get 1 mandate.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
  
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI or PSD to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8^th mandate.

There are still 5 districts to analyze, starting with Korce.