There are still 37 days until election day and we're getting close to analyze the big districts which will be the one deciding the outcome. Today we'll analyze Shkoder, one of the traditional PD strong zones. As always you can find the results of the 2009 elections, updated to match the 2013 coalitions here. At the coalition level the result is 7-4 in favor of PD coalition (the same as in 2009). By including PDK in the coalition, it adds more than 3,000 votes to the PD coalition and confirms the 7th mandate. The new parties (FRD & AK) are expected to get some votes, but nothing that will change the big picture.
As you can see there has to be a difference bigger than 7% for PS to get one more mandate and on the other way bigger than 11% for PD to get one more mandate. So can say be very confident (99.9% probability) than the results in 2013 will be 7 mandates for the PD coalition and 4 mandates for the PS coalition. Inside both coalitions, the smaller parties have a chance to get one mandate. In the PD coalition PDK needs about 1,000 more votes to get one mandate, so there's an outside chance for that. Even PR, LDK and PAA need less than 1,500 votes to get one mandate, so they have an outside chance too. In the PS coalitions, LSI needs about 2,000 more votes to get one mandate which is very difficult, but not impossible. The other parties need more than 2,500 and we can rule them out.
Country wise the tables look like this.
With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
| Shkoder |
7 |
4 |
0 |
| Total |
22 |
17 |
1 |
With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
| Shkoder |
6 |
3 |
0 |
| Total |
21 |
15
|
1 |
Outside chance (1%):
- PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
- PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
- LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
Hot contests (50-50):
- PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
Next week we move to analyze Vlore.