Fier is second largest district after Tirana and potentially one of decisive districts with a total of 16 mandates. In the 2009 elections the PS coalition won 9 mandates, LSI one mandate and PD 6 mandates. Those results projected in the 2013 elections give the PS coalition only 9 mandates and the PD coalition gets 7 mandates (the extra mandate goes to PDIU). However the difference between the 10th mandate for the PS coalition and the 7th mandate of the PD coalition is less than 1% which make it the next hot contest. Another factor to consider is that Dritan Prifti is an independent candidate in Fier and it's expected to get votes from those of LSI. However there's only an outside chance for him to get a mandate and on the other hand LSI is guaranteed to keep the mandate because now it's inside a coalition and only about 5,000 votes are needed. From the new "entries", there's no indication that FRD will play any major role, while AK will probably get a considerable number of votes which give it an outside chance.
Going down inside the PD coalition, PDIU is very likely to get 1 mandate considering that now it's stronger than in 2009. Also PR, PLL and LZHK have an outside chance, but it's unlikely that any of them will surpass PDIU. That leaves PD with the remaining mandates, 6 in case the coalition gets 7 mandates and 5 otherwise. On the other side, as I said above, LSI is guaranteed to keep its mandate. The only other party with a chance is PSD, but with LSI inside the coalition its chance are null, so the rest of the mandates goes to PS.
In summary, the prediction for Fier is:
- PS guaranteed 8 mandates.
- PD guaranteed 5 mandates.
- LSI guaranteed 1 mandate.
- PDIU very likely to get 1 mandate. Outside chance for Dritan Prifti, PR, PLL, LZHK, AK.
- 50-50 contest between PS and PD for the last mandate.
Country wise the tables are
With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
7 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
4 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Durres |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Elbasan |
6 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Fier |
5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| Total |
48 |
47 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:
| District |
PD |
PS |
LSI |
PDIU |
PBDNJ |
| Kukes |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Gjirokaster |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Diber |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Lezhe |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Berat |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Shkoder |
6 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Vlore |
3 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| Korce |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Durres |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Elbasan |
6 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Fier |
5 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
46 |
44
|
3 |
1 |
1 |
Outside chance (1%):
- PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
- PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
- LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
- LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
- FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
- PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.
- PR, PLL, LZHK, AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from either PDIU or PD) in Fier.
Hot contests (50-50):
- PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
- PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
- PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
- PD-PR in Durres for the 13th mandate.
- PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14th mandate.
- PD-PS in Fier for the 16th mandate.
Now only Tirana is left, which of course is the hottest and more interesting district. Happy reading until next post :)